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2017 Atlantic hurricane season tracks-to-date, through October 8, 2017.
Ophelia, not shown here, first became a tropical storm on October 9. (Note:
The green lines connect the points between Harvey and Lee degenerating to
remnants and their regeneration as tropical cyclones.)
The 2017 Atlantic hurricane season is now among
the top eight all-time most active seasons on record, thanks to a frenetic
stretch of long-lived, destructive hurricanes from mid-August through early
October.
(MORE: Hurricane Central)
Through October 9, 15
named storms, nine hurricanes, and five major (Category 3 or stronger)
hurricanes had formed in the 2017 Atlantic hurricane season.
By one measure of activity
called the ACE (Accumulated Cyclone Energy) index, which adds each tropical
storm or hurricane's wind speed through its life cycle, the 2017 season is
already a top 10 busiest season.
Through October 9,
following the demise of former Hurricane Nate, 2017 was already the eighth
most active Atlantic hurricane season of record, according to statistics
compiled by Dr. Phil Klotzbach, Colorado State University tropical
meteorologist.
Long-lived, intense
hurricanes have a high ACE index, while short-lived, weak tropical storms
have a low value. The ACE of a season is the sum of the ACE for each storm
and takes into account the number, strength and duration of all the tropical
storms and hurricanes in the season.
According to a National
Hurricane Center report, only 1933 and 2004 had a faster ACE pace through
the end of September than 2017. As the graph above shows, each of those
seasons ended up a top five active season overall, with 1933 occupying the
top spot.
Roughly 16 percent of an average Atlantic season's
ACE index occurs after October 9, according to Klotzbach's climatology.
Just an average amount of
ACE the rest of this season would place 2017 close to the top five most
active seasons in the satellite era.
How This Compares to 2004
and 2005
This season becomes even more compelling when
comparing it to two of the most notorious recent hurricane seasons of the
previous decade.
The nine-hurricane pace matches that from 2004,
when four of those hurricanes hammered various parts of Florida, among other
areas.
While 2017 is unlikely to touch 2005's record 15
hurricanes through the entire season, it has already chalked up the same
number of major (Category 3 or stronger) hurricanes through October 9 as
that record-smashing 2005 season generated up to that point in the season.
In 2005, Dennis, Emily, Katrina, Maria (yep, same
name) and Rita were at least Category 3 intensity through October 9.
A stretch of nine straight
hurricanes from August 9 through October 6, in 2017 was a first in the
Atlantic basin in 124 years.
Included in this stretch
was catastrophic Category 4 Hurricane Harvey, followed by the long-lived
saga of Hurricane Irma, then by long-lived Jose and catastrophic Hurricane
Maria and finally by Nate.
(MORE: Four Hurricanes
Made a U.S. Landfall in 2017, a First in 12 Years)
The 30-year average number of hurricanes for an
entire Atlantic season is six. The entire 2016 season generated a total of
seven hurricanes, needing Hurricane Otto over Thanksgiving to get to that
season total.
(MORE: How a Borderline La Niņa Could Impact the
Rest of the 2017 Hurricane Season)
In all, September 2017 was
the single most active month for Atlantic tropical cyclones on record,
topping the previous record from September 2004.
According to the National Hurricane Center, an average hurricane season
typically sees another two named storms, one of which attains hurricane
intensity,after October 9.
Given that, 2017 may
continue to climb the all-time list of notorious Atlantic hurricane seasons.
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